The World in 2014: China, India and the networked economy

One of the greatest sessions we had last week in Davos. I took most of my notes inspired by Peter Schwartz, of Global Business Network and was extremely impressed by Peter's thoughts and charism.



The two stars of that session and actually of the whole annual meeting 2004 were India and China.



If we take a closer look at Asia, they are the stars because Japan is not anymore, with its population getting old (20% of the Japanese population will soon be more than 65 years old. China will be the center of Asia despite the need for reforming its banking sector and its currency.



Peter Schwartz says we will soon call Asia "the greater chinese zone of prosperity", even though one can believe Indian can sustain its growth.



Another center of the world will be the Caspian region for energy and sources of conflicts.



Europe's greatest challenge will be to have Russia join the EU. Russia in 2020 will have great opportunities but also a great burden. Europe is not seen as a high growth zone as it will take a very long time to continue integrating all its members and build a common culture. Europe continues to be seen as "old Europe".



Peter Schwartz: about Brasil: "Brasil has a great future and always will" made the whole room laugh.



The productivity revolution sees no end in the USA. Its economy will power on but politically the US will begin to be more and more isolated.



"Kyoto is dead", global warm and all environmental challenges create enormous risks of isolation for the US.



The networked economy without physical reality



The most important regions of the world will not be regions, but online networks. Most important people and companies, especially originating from Singapore, India and China will not be based in a place, but in the Internet.



It is a fundamental paradigm shift and performing in the next 20 years is about global competitivity in the networked economy.
"Let's make the Cyberspace a country and join the UN".




Major risks of the next ten years:



- Major spread of disease. SARS is only an early indicator of what could happen.
- Abrupt climate change. First global warm, then global cooling.
- Africa becoming the greatest tragedy of humanity with poverty, AIDS and war
- Significant part of the world is de-developing



And now random notes from other panelists:
- "don't follow what we say, follow where we invest" (India and China).
- one region could be a surprise, it is middle east
- The current attractive regions of the world such as the USA will change. The new emerging hubs will be "where people want to live and work"



I was so impressed that I briefly asked permission to Peter to blog his above ideas and I will start reading his latest book, Inevitable Surprises: Thinking ahead in a Time of Turbulence.